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Phoenix Housing Forecast Reminds Builders To Think Long Term

January 28, 2008  |  from Construction Jobs Blog

Addressing more than 1,000 people on Tuesday, Phoenix housing analyst RL Brown delivered a housing forecast reminding homebuilders to think long term.

2008 is expected to witness a 20 percent drop in home-building permits from 2007’s lackluster performance:  that’s somewhere between 22,000 and 24,000 permits this year (Metro Phoenix).

“But Brown also said there’s plenty of opportunity for builders who construct houses that home buyers can afford in places they want to live now,” reports The Arizona Republic.  “He cited DR Horton’s 5,861 home sales in 2007, a stat that bucked the slowdown.” 

Besides unique opportunities today, Brown forecasts permits to increase steadily beginning in 2009, and by 2012 expects Phoenix’s home building market to be “back to pre-boom levels.”

Until then, home builders, home owners, local governments and others will have to live with a radically changed market. 

Some of the key economic indicators used by Brown include Metro Phoenix job growth, which is expected to decline into 2009 before rebounding, and population growth, which will fall into 2009 as well, before eclipsing pre-slowdown levels in 2010-12.

Filed: Industry-Outlook